Career Crossroads: How to Navigate Big Decisions with Strategic Foresight

Hello Friends, 

Picture this: you have just been offered a leadership position in a new city. It is a step up, in line with your career aspirations but the trade off is that you are now faced with a longer commute and time away from your family. Alternatively, here is another picture: you have been weighing whether you should take time off work to pursue an advanced degree. You know the degree would be beneficial but you are reluctant to be away from full-time work for various reasons including the financial implications. These moments at career crossroads can be stressful. You want to make the “right” decision but you are afraid: “what if it’s the wrong choice?” 

In today’s #MondayMusing we explore how, through strategic foresight, you can make decisions that align with your immediate and long-term goals, and give yourself peace of mind that, regardless of the final decision, nothing is wasted.  

What is Strategic Foresight?  

Before we jump into the meat of things, what is this strategic foresight I’m talking about? Strategic foresight is not about predicting the future - it is about preparing for it. More formally, it is “a discipline organizations use to gather and process information about their future operating environment.” (Futures Platform) While organizations may use it to analyze how trends and geopolitical climate may impact their work, we will borrow some of its principles to apply directly to our lives. To that end, strategic foresight is the ability to confidently analyze different scenarios and consider the ripple effects of your decisions. Here are a couple of the steps: 

1. Anticipate Possible Scenarios

Take the example of Lana, a 30 year old software engineer who has been offered an opportunity to move into a managerial role at her organization. This was a significant point in her career as she would be the first person to hold such a role at her age. Initially excited, Lana became concerned that the demands of managing a team could mean less time for honing her technical skills which she considered to be of fundamental importance for future roles she wanted elsewhere. At the same time, she enjoyed helping her teammates and considered that she could discover a passion for leadership and having a managerial role on her CV could also open up other opportunities. Lana outlined the possible outcomes weighing the best and worst-case scenarios, and assessed different possibilities if she accepted the offer. Some of the questions Lana asked herself included: “If I take on the managerial position, is there scope for me to still do some of the technical work so that I keep up my technical skills?” “Could I divide my work 80-20?” Thinking strategically, Lana asked: “is there scope for me to hire or upskill a staff member to a deputy manager position thereby relieving me of some of the more administrative tasks as a manager?”

What is important in Lana’s approach is that she did not stay stuck looking at the negatives of either scenario. Rather, whenever she saw a potential issue she considered other options. Armed with options (not problems), she was able to discuss with her supervisor and ultimately made the best choice for herself. The takeaway here:Brainstorm scenarios before making any commitments. Do Your Research and Have Further conversations. This gives you a clearer sense of what’s at stake and what’s possible.  

2. Seek Diverse Perspectives 

Strategic foresight thrives on input from multiple sources. Consider David, who wanted to transition from a stable corporate career to entrepreneurship. Instead of relying solely on his instincts (which are shaped by his unique outlook), he sought insights from a mentor, a financial advisor, and even fellow entrepreneurs on platforms like Konseye:The Mentorship Network where, in addition to connecting with mentors, members of the community engage in peer-to-peer mentoring and support, helping each other thrive. These diverse viewpoints helped David identify blind spots in his plan. While David is ultimately responsible for his own career decisions, seeking these diverse perspectives helped him navigate the next steps with some strategic foresight even if the exact next steps were not always so clear when he left his job. 

Which leads to an important point - sometimes we want complete clarity before taking the leap. However, life does not always work that way. You would not always have all the answers when facing a career crossroad. I certainly did not when I left my role as Senior Counsel at the World Bank to complete my doctoral program and embark on consulting and other social entrepreneurship projects close to my heart (such as launching Konseye). But what I did have was clarity of my vision and what I wanted out of my life. When that is all you have you still have a lot. Keep taking it one step at a time. Sometimes all you need is just enough light for the step that you are on. (Interesting read here for those who want to combine their strategic thinking with their faith.)

By the way friends, strategic foresight isn’t about immediate gratification. It is about laying the groundwork for success that endures - however you may define your success. As cliché as it may seem, asking yourself where you want to be in 5, 10, 15 years is a good start because decisions that may seem optimal now may not serve your future self.  

Also, please note that I am not suggesting we all take massive leaps. Sometimes baby steps or small hops are what you need - you have to evaluate each situation. Running small experiments to test the waters could be a way to go and that leads to point 3 below. 

3. Run Small Experiments  

If you are at a career crossroad and the stakes seem too high, running small experiments could be a great first step. Take Himari for example. Before moving on to full-time freelancing as a graphic designer, she started consulting on the side. This allowed her to maintain financial security while testing the waters and building clientele for herself. I call these side gigs. Sometimes these side gigs can allow you to practicalize or even acquire technical knowledge in a new area you want to go into. Other times, because you have financial security from your day job, you are willing to take on free or discounted work to give yourself exposure. Thinking strategically about these small experiments can also help you maximize their impact. 

4. Create a Decision Matrix  

A final way to use strategic foresight in your big decision making process is to create a decision matrix where you map certain criteria, assign weights and assess . Whether you map it out like the table below or do the calculations in your head, rest assured we are all using some form of matrix whether we realize it or not. Sometimes seeing things on paper helps. If you are that type of person, why not try a matrix. This is a sample matrix Tendai created for himself when deciding whether to stay in his organization and work towards a new leadership role, apply for an advanced degree, or start freelancing. As you would see, he wrote out key factors/values in his life and compared his options based on the key criteria. Again, you do not have to calculate like he did and you can make your matrix as simple or as detailed as suits you.

To wrap up, strategic foresight can be helpful when making big decisions for your life. You could start using some of the strategies for smaller decisions to help you feel confident in the fundamentals. Going back to the formal definition and how organizations and States use strategic foresight, here is an extract from the OECD: 

Examples of Strategic Foresight Methods

·       Horizon scanning: detecting emerging evidence and early signals of change in the present to help anticipate their potential future impacts.

·       Megatrends analysis: exploring and reviewing large-scale changes in economies and societies over time at the intersection of multiple policy domains, to anticipate complex and multidimensional impacts in the future.​

·       Scenario planning: developing multiple future scenarios to help explore their possible implications for the present.

·       Visioning and back-casting: developing an image of an ideal (or undesirable) future state and working backwards to identify what steps to take (or avoid).​

Despite the industry language, I hope you can see how some of these methods are applicable to your personal decision making. Thinking big - wide - and strategically is a way to ensure that whatever the outcome you  are making the best decision with the information you have. In this way, no experience is wasted. Leave your comments below or come online to the Konseye Community Forum and let’s dive deeper into this topic.

Have a wonderful week and remember: With The Right Network Anything Is Possible.

Adejoké

Team Konseye